Having now watched several “speaker races” over the years I am beginning to have a certain perspective on this unique election. Always remember there are only 150 voters in this particular election, and it is definitely winner take all.
This is easily the single most important personal vote a Texas House of Representatives member can make during their career in the Texas House. Backing a losing candidate can and often does impact your entire time in the Texas House. You could be relegated to the proverbial “back bench” perhaps for just one session or maybe even longer. This not only can impact the Representative’s legislative career, but also their district and the citizens within.
Betting on the winner can have the opposite effect.
Very rarely is there a race against a sitting Speaker, for obvious reasons. If you are going to usurp the king, you better make sure you succeed. This most recent effort, by forces within the Texas House and without is unprecedented in its scope and the amount of funds spent to achieve their goal. While the initial effort to defeat Speaker Phelan in his own House district was unsuccessful it was just barely unsuccessful. Phelan won by only 366 votes in a runoff he was forced into by coming in second in the initial primary.
Money can and does make a difference with millions being spent in this race on both sides. Although Speaker Phelan was successful in the first round, his challenges give some hope to the challengers in the next round. This race is different though. There are only 150 voters, and success is determined by a simple majority of 76, and all 150 Democrats and Republicans get to vote. Historically, the Texas House has not operated like the United States House of Representatives. When the Democrats had the majority there were Republican Chairman and to date it has been the same under Republican Speakerships (until recently the Texas Senate has also operated in this fashion). This method of leadership is one of the central points of contention of those seeking Phelan’s replacement, that and the Impeachment of Attorney General Ken Paxton.
After the Republican caucus meeting last month, the list of Republicans running for Speaker was whittled down to just one, David Cook, a two-term member from Mansfield. After a week of guesswork by interested parties as to whom might be supporting Representative Cook, the Cook campaign released a list of 46 names of the 48 who have committed to support Representative Cook for Speaker. Assuming all 48 win reelection/election that would give Representative Cook a majority of the Republican caucus. Is that enough to be Speaker? No. As mentioned above, it takes 76 to be successful.
He will need more.
There are currently 86 Republicans and 63 Democrats and one vacancy in the House. Those numbers could remain static or could inch up two or three either way depending on voter turnout which always increases in a Presidential election year. I would not be surprised if the Democrats net increase one or two during this cycle.
Republican Caucus rules require a vote of the caucus to endorse a candidate for Speaker after the general election and before the session begins in January. All Republicans are supposed to support whomever wins the caucus vote when the session begins in January. Although that is what the caucus rules say, it is not what always happens.
The Republican Caucus bylaws require a three-fifths vote necessary to receive the endorsement of the caucus and in theory support of the entire caucus. With the current Republican makeup of the House that number would be 52, but that could change with the election results, but not by much.
Speaker Phelan recently released a statement saying, that he currently enjoys a majority of support from members of the Texas House but has not released any lists. It is reasonable to assume that he is counting on at least some Democrat support to reach that magic number of 76.
It is not unusual for names to appear on both lists—the member betting both the come and don’t come lines. As in craps, the House will take that action and the player usually loses.
So, the Democrats? Let’s not forget that one of the announced candidates for Speaker is Ana-Marie Rodriguez Ramos (Richardson). She came into the House in 2019 and announced for Speaker earlier this month. She also has not released any lists of supporters. While there is no avenue for her to reach the Speakership, she could certainly have a voting block that is supporting her. At least now there does not appear to be a solid coalition of Democrats supporting Phelan, although what those numbers look like is anyone’s guess.
Over the next several weeks and months, Representative Cook will be trying to garner five or six more House members’ support and hold onto what he has. Speaker Phelan will be trying to peel off some of the 48 who have currently signed on to Cook, shore up his Republican base and try to find out what the Democrats are up to. Both Representative Cook and Speaker Phelan have access to campaign funds that could be helpful to those who have General election worries or have a debt from the primary.
And there is nothing keeping yet another as yet unnamed House member from deciding that he or she has the best shot at the magic number.
Lots of cards yet to be played in this hand. Stay tuned and buckle your seatbelts. It’s going to be a bumpy ride.
—TWGGA Legislative Advocate Kyle Frazier